The speed of the economic recovery will largely hinge on the availability, distribution and reach of COVID-19 vaccines, pushing the expected burst of pent-up consumer demand into the second half of 2021, CoBank reported.

“The coming year will be a recovery year for most Americans and the businesses that make up the U.S. economy,” said Dan Kowalski, vice president of CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange division. “The early part of the year should look very different than the latter, but in total, economic growth is estimated to be about 4%, following a retreat of roughly 4% in 2020.”

CoBank’s 2021 outlook report outlines 10 key factors that will shape agriculture and market sectors that serve rural communities throughout the country:

An uneven recovery in the global economy.
A U.S. economic recovery that depends on key fiscal policy decisions in the coming months.
Key decisions made by central banks like the Federal Reserve.
Changes in U.S. government leadership.
A U.S. farm economy boosted by 2020 gains.
Adaptation by the specialty crops sector to historic shifts in logistics and supply chains.
The grain and farm supply sectors, which will begin the year on relatively firm footing.
Higher feed costs and food service demand will create challenges for the dairy and animal protein sectors.
Changes in the energy industry, with a shift toward renewable energy, will change rural electricity.
Rural communications will change with policies enacted by the Federal Communications Commission.

More information is available from CoBank.

Report highlights forces that will shape U.S. rural economy in 2021