{"id":22654,"date":"2022-10-01T00:00:10","date_gmt":"2022-10-01T00:00:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/todaysveterinarybusiness.com\/?p=22654"},"modified":"2022-09-30T21:57:35","modified_gmt":"2022-09-30T21:57:35","slug":"investment-financial-wellness-1022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/navc.sitepreview.app\/todaysveterinarybusiness.com\/investment-financial-wellness-1022\/","title":{"rendered":"Uncertainty, Optimism and Crystal Balls"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Wow, what a year it\u2019s been. A crisis is happening just about everywhere you look \u2014 the war in Ukraine, China\u2019s aggressiveness, recession, inflation, out-of-control violent crime, political divisiveness. All those simultaneous events seem to have come out of nowhere. And as 2022 marches on, the stock market continues on a wild ride. After stellar returns from 2019 to 2021, U.S. stocks completed the worst first half in the past 50 years, with a loss of 21%. The financial media has been relentless with doomsday predictions, and it\u2019s easy to find yourself worried about what the future might hold for your investments.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Data reported by Yahoo Finance on U.S. stocks\u2019 first-half returns since 1950 showed a market that posts more positive returns than negative. Our point: Cycles are a normal and natural part of the stock market.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But why do we have market cycles? When the market is up, investors often feel confident and think nothing will ever go wrong again. Eventually, the contagious enthusiasm can lead to inflated market prices. Then, when the prices are well above fair value, the market corrects itself, and investors switch to a pessimist view that nothing can ever go right again. Ultimately, some investors buy at reduced prices, starting the cycle anew.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Investors who allow their emotions to guide their investment decisions often buy high and sell low, which is not the path to a successful financial plan. But emotions are part of market cycles and a reason we see volatility over and over.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>The Case for Optimism<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Since your outlook matters in your investing decisions, let\u2019s change our perspective from the current pessimistic news. Instead, let\u2019s reflect on the past as an exercise in planning better. Imagine it\u2019s January 1997.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The first Harry Potter book was just published.<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Amazon sells only books.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The internet is in its infancy. We\u2019re still a year away from Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman saying, \u201cBy 2005 \u2026 the internet\u2019s impact on the economy [will be] no greater than the fax machine\u2019s.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Now, let\u2019s say you stumble upon a crystal ball. Yes, the crystal ball that every investor and market prognosticator dreams of having. First, you see the 25-year outlook:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Y2K scare.<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The bursting of the tech bubble.<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Russia\u2019s debt default.<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">9\/11.<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">U.S. stocks returning 0% over the \u201clost decade.\u201d<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Great Recession.<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The 2008 housing crisis.<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Polarizing political movements.<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The global pandemic.<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Ukraine war and the second Russian debt default.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">You know what the future holds, but what do you do as an investor?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Do you get into the market or out of it?<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Do you change your investment allocations?<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Do you increase or decrease your <a href=\"https:\/\/todaysveterinarybusiness.com\/retirement-plan-second-opinion\/\">401(k) or 403(b) contributions<\/a>?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Be honest with yourself. With headlines like the ones above, the future looks bleak. But what actually happened over the next 25 years for investors?<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">From January 1997 to December 2021, the U.S. stock market averaged an annualized return of 9.8%. One dollar invested in January 1997 would be worth $10.25 at the end of 2021. But how could this be? Given all the negative events, how does an investor earn nearly a 10% annual return over 25 years?<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s because uncertainty is priced into the market. That means uncertainty is part of the market. Without uncertainty, you really don\u2019t have a stock market.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Markets always have been, and always will be, uncertain. If there were no risk, there would be no return. If you\u2019re not willing to endure the discomfort of short-term volatility in your portfolio, you won\u2019t be rewarded with above-average, long-term stock returns. It demands your patience.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For as much bad news we experienced over the past 25 years, an equal (if not greater) amount of good news occurred. People are innovative, and innovation is bred from hardship and uncertainty.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The innovation over the past 25 years has been staggering. Thousands of companies didn\u2019t exist 25 years ago, so why would we give up hope, ignore the academic research and jeopardize our plans due to uncertainties? Uncertainties were always present and always will be. As will human innovation and ingenuity.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Have a Financial Plan<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We choose to be optimistic about the future, but if optimism is a stretch for you now, at least meet us at pragmatism. Part of that is making sure your investment mix is appropriate for your financial goals. If you stay the course with the wrong portfolio, it will take you to a place you don\u2019t want to go.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Your financial goals should dictate your portfolio allocation mix. We call these three time-based goal categories your \u201cThree Bucket Strategy.\u201d For instance:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Choose low-risk money (cash or similarly stable instruments) for your short-term goals (zero to two years).<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For your midterm goals (years three to six), we recommend a balanced mix of stocks and bonds.<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Long-term funds are invested in a globally diversified portfolio of stocks for growth.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Additionally, your investment portfolio\u2019s construction and ongoing oversight should be based on long-term academic research, not fads or trends. The \u201cThree Bucket Strategy\u201d stacks the odds in your favor, putting you in a position to:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weather the storm in the short run.<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Reap the rewards of patience in the long run.<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Help you accomplish your most important financial goals and achieve your heartfelt family dreams.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s no longer 1997, for worse and for better. We think David Booth, the executive chairman and co-founder of Dimensional Fund Advisors, said it best: \u201cBy investing in a market portfolio, you\u2019re not trying to figure out which stocks are going to thrive and which aren\u2019t going to be able to recover. You\u2019re betting on human ingenuity to solve problems. \u2026 People, companies and markets adapt.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When you\u2019re a globally diversified investor, it is that adaptation, combined with patience, that allows you to expect favorable investment outcomes over the next 25 years and beyond.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When times feel most uncertain, we must remind ourselves not to panic. Instead, reach for optimism, rely on your financial life plan for making financial decisions, and think long term.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h3 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>ANOTHER PERSPECTIVE<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to Oaktree Capital Management co-founder Howard S. Marks, \u201cInvestors are capable of interpreting virtually any piece of news either positively or negatively, depending on how it\u2019s reported and on their mood.\u201d His article \u201cBull Market Rhymes\u201d is at <a href=\"http:\/\/bit.ly\/3dEifL1\">bit.ly\/3dEifL1<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Investors who allow their emotions to guide their investment decisions often end up on the wrong financial path.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":268,"featured_media":22655,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[395],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22654","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-october-november-2022","column-financial-wellness","clinical_topics-finance"],"acf":{"hide_sidebar":false,"hide_sidebar_ad":false,"hide_all_ads":false},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Uncertainty, Optimism and Crystal Balls | Today&#039;s Veterinary Business<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Investors who allow emotions to guide investment decisions often buy high and sell low, which is not the path to a successful financial plan.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Uncertainty, Optimism and Crystal Balls\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Investors who allow emotions to guide investment decisions often buy high and sell low, which is not the path to a successful financial plan.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/navc.sitepreview.app\/todaysveterinarybusiness.com\/investment-financial-wellness-1022\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Today&#039;s Veterinary Business\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/todaysveterinarybusiness\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-10-01T00:00:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/navc.sitepreview.app\/todaysveterinarybusiness.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/09\/Financial-Wellness-1022.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"544\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Robert A. 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