Macroeconomic trends and veterinary specific data indicate a downturn in pet owner spending — and the potential of a looming recession. However, reasons for optimism shine through in the data, according to American Veterinary Medical Association chief economist Katelyn McCullock and AVMA assistant director for strategic business research Dr. Chris Doherty.
While speaking on the economic state of the profession at the WVC Annual Conference in Las Vegas, McCullock and Dr. Doherty outlined a cloudy future for American consumers, while sharing specific data on the veterinary profession, from new graduate employment prospects to average working hours per week.
Here are four highlights from their presentation. For a more detailed view, see the 2025 AVMA Economic State of the Profession report.
1. A Downturn in Consumer Spending Is Here
McCullock reviewed economic indicators, including the U.S. Treasury yield curve and debt delinquency rates, noting that both point to a potential recession in the next 12 to 18 months — although that is far from guaranteed. Additionally, she mentioned recent White House policies and noted how they could impact pet owner spending.
Her key takeaways:
- More pet owners are relying on credit to cover their expenses (including veterinary care).
- Geographic areas with high shares of government contractors could be negatively impacted by layoffs.
- Tariff policies could pass expenses on to pet owners and impact their spending power.
McCullock emphasized the unknown behind all these changes and recommended a “wait and see” approach.
2. … But Opportunities Exist
Dr. Doherty noted that the overall pet population has grown steadily over time, with the dog population in the U.S. at nearly 90 million. He also said the share of pet owners who have visited the veterinarian in the past year is up to 69.1% overall, but the time gap between visits is growing. Dr. Doherty said a higher percentage of pet owners indicated that they have a relationship with veterinarians, pointing out that re-engaging lapsed clients should be a focus.
“This is an opportunity to reengage these pet owners and get them in on a regular schedule,” he said.
Furthermore, the percentage of pet owners who view their pets as a “member of the family” is growing, with 88.8% of dog owners and 84.7% of cat owners saying so.
3. Real Income for Veterinarians Is Stalling
Real income for veterinarians — after adjusting for inflation — has stagnated.
“When you account for inflation, salaries and incomes really are where they were at the turn of the century in 2000,” said Dr. Doherty.
Because of this, there is a shrinking gap between real income for new graduates and established veterinarians (19%).
Additionally, Dr. Doherty noted a subtle trend in new graduate data to monitor. The percentage of new grads with no job offer (6.1% in 2024) is slightly up from 2023, and the percentage of those with full-time job offer is slightly down (just over 60% in 2024).
4. Work-Life Balance on the Comeback?
On a positive note, it appears the extensive hours working have fallen from pandemic peaks. According to a survey of AVMA members, the mean hours worked per work is 42.4 and the media is 42. This is down from a peak in 2021 (45.6 mean; 45 median) and nearing a return to pre-pandemic levels.