The number of graduates from existing veterinary colleges will likely meet demand until at least 2035, according to a Brakke Consulting report commissioned by the American Veterinary Medical Association.
The analysis evaluated trends in DVM graduates, pet-owner households, disposable incomes and what people spend on pets.
“The projections in this analysis do not justify a conclusion of overall excess capacity or capacity shortage by 2030 or 2035,” said John Volk, a Brakke Consulting senior analyst.
A 2023 report by economist Dr. James Lloyd on behalf of Mars Veterinary Health forecasted the need for up to 55,000 additional U.S. veterinarians by 2030.
Using data from the U.S. Consumer Price Index and the AVMA’s Veterinary Industry Tracker, the authors of the Brakke report found that veterinary service prices have risen while service volume has fallen.
“Prices went up for a long time. Now visits are down 2%,” said co-author Matthew MacLachlan, a Cornell University assistant professor of veterinary business and entrepreneurship and the report’s co-author. “Prices went up faster than they did for the overall economy, so now there is a slowdown in visits, which we would expect, given higher prices.”
The authors expect the percentage of veterinarians in companion animal practice to grow modestly between now and 2035. They forecast an approximate 2% annual growth rate in pet ownership over the same period.
According to the report, “If demand [for veterinary services] is to accelerate substantially, it would need to come from changes in consumer preferences, especially to increased frequency of visits to the veterinarian or an increased consumption of veterinary services during the visit.”
Another consideration involves new veterinary colleges. If all 13 in various stages of accreditation open, the population of veterinarians would grow faster than pet-owning households, the report stated.